Marex Spectron Bullion Thoughts
Gold threatened the 1300 level yesterday, reaching a high of 1298.80 on August, which corresponds to around 1296/96.50 on spot. So from a spot perspective, a new high for the year, just, but from an August standpoint, missing the high. However, there is no denying, gold has its buy boots on and I suspect, as I said on Monday that we will touch 1300 at some point. We do though have a few things coming up which may influence the price tomorrow. These are the testimony of former FBI Director James Comey and this could be the most important factor if he comes out with anything damaging to the Trump Presidency. We also have an ECB meeting, with the delight of Mario Draghi talking afterwards and finally for those of you who wonder what on earth is going on in the UK at the moment, we have the General Election. Much has been made of this latter event in the financial press as a factor in the move upwards in gold, but I completely disagree. Even in the worst case scenario for the UK economy, a Jeremy Corbyn win, gold prices would possibly rally ten dollars, but I would be surprised at even that. Sterling will be affected, not gold. However, Corbyn will not win, the Conservatives will be re-elected with an increased majority and gold will carry on without a backward glance at the idiotic shenanigans that have made up the UK election.
So the major talking point will be Comey’s testimony. This may well prove to be a damp squib and if he says nothing more than we already know, then look for the dollar to rally and gold to pull back. However if he does come up with any new and damaging evidence then expect the opposite. This event will be closely watched and the markets will be somewhat on hold ahead of this. Watch and react accordingly.
On the whole, as I have been saying for a long time now, being long of gold is the way forward. I don’t advocate buying it on the highs, but there have been numerous opportunities to buy dips and I would continue to do this. There are too many disturbing factors out there in the world to be short at the moment.